The El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to intensify in the coming months before reaching its peak in December, bringing above-average temperatures to large parts of the world and altering rainfall patterns, the United Nations’ weather and climate agency has warned.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), in its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, said the strengthening phenomenon could increase the risk of droughts and floods in different parts of the world.
“El Niño will continue to intensify ahead of its forecast peak in December,” the WMO said.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that causes warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It influences global wind, atmospheric pressure and rainfall patterns.
The phenomenon generally occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts between nine and 12 months. It alternates with its cooler counterpart, La Niña, with neutral conditions occurring between the two phases.
The WMO said sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are expected to reach record levels during October-November-December 2026, reflecting the rapid strengthening of the current El Niño event.
The agency said the phenomenon could influence weather patterns, economies, ecosystems and communities around the world.
The forecast is based on a consensus among 13 leading national and international meteorological centres.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño was already firmly established and strengthening rapidly.
According to WMO forecasts, there is an almost 100 per cent probability that the phenomenon will continue through February 2027, potentially making it one of the strongest El Niño events recorded since at least 1950.
Saulo explained that El Niño does not create additional heat in the atmosphere but instead releases heat stored in the oceans.
She noted that ocean temperatures are currently at their highest levels ever recorded, meaning there is greater heat available to be released.
The index used to measure sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific rose from 1.6°C above average in June to 2.5°C above average in August.
For October-November-December, the anomaly is forecast to reach around 3.7°C above average.
If confirmed, that would represent the highest level recorded since observations began, surpassing the previous record of 2.6°C during the 2015-16 El Niño.
The previous El Niño contributed to exceptionally high global temperatures, with 2023 becoming the second-hottest year on record and 2024 setting a new global temperature record at approximately 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
Although El Niño typically reaches its peak between November and February, its strongest temperature impacts generally emerge later.
The current event is already affecting several regions, including parts of Central America, where drought has caused significant damage to crops and livestock.
