Global temperatures in 2026 are almost certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, with the year likely to rank as the second-hottest ever recorded, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
The climate monitoring agency said there remains a 20 per cent possibility that 2026 could equal or surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.
Copernicus also projected that the average global temperature over the four-year period from 2023 to 2026 would exceed the 1.5°C threshold established under the Paris Climate Agreement to limit the most severe consequences of global warming.
According to its latest monthly bulletin, October 2026 was the warmest October ever recorded, with global surface air temperatures reaching 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels, defined as the period between 1850 and 1900. It also marked the third consecutive month in which temperatures exceeded the 1.5°C threshold.
Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), said October continued the trend of exceptional global warming, with record temperatures recorded across the atmosphere and surface oceans.
She added that an exceptionally strong El Niño was contributing additional heat to an already warming climate driven by human activities.
The findings come as countries prepare for the two-week United Nations COP31 climate summit in Turkey, following a year marked by devastating floods in Nepal, extreme heatwaves across Europe and major wildfires in Indonesia.
Climate experts have been warning that the ongoing El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to reach its peak later this year, could become the strongest ever recorded.
Copernicus reported that the intensifying weather pattern set a new temperature record in a key region of the Pacific Ocean last month.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that raises sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and influences weather patterns worldwide. It can increase the likelihood of droughts and floods while intensifying the effects of human-induced global warming.
Forecasters have warned that the phenomenon could contribute to making 2027 the hottest year on record.
Under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, countries committed to keeping global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while making efforts to limit the rise to 1.5°C.
However, the United Nations warned in September that the world was likely to surpass the long-term 1.5°C target within the coming years.
Scientists stress that rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions, particularly those produced by fossil fuels, is essential to limiting the period of global warming beyond the 1.5°C threshold and bringing temperatures down as quickly as possible.
