The United States is preparing for the 2026 midterm elections, a crucial political contest that could reshape the balance of power in Congress and influence President Donald Trump’s remaining years in office.
Scheduled halfway through the four-year presidential term, the elections do not include the presidency itself. However, they are expected to attract significant attention, with more than 100 million Americans potentially casting ballots if turnout matches the 2022 midterm elections.
Campaign spending has also reached unprecedented levels. By October 12, political advertising expenditure had reportedly reached $3.8 billion, with major spending concentrated in competitive Senate races in Texas, Ohio and Michigan. Campaign finance records indicate that billionaire Elon Musk has spent approximately $366 million supporting Republican candidates and causes.
Despite the extensive campaigning, midterm elections generally attract fewer voters than presidential elections. More than 155 million votes were cast in the 2024 presidential election.
The primary battle centres on control of the US Congress, as Democrats seek to end Republican dominance in both chambers.
Republicans currently hold a narrow 218–214 advantage in the House of Representatives, alongside two vacancies and an independent member who caucuses with the party. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure a majority.
The Senate is another key battleground, with Republicans holding a 53–47 majority. Democrats must gain four seats to take control. Competitive contests in states including Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia could determine the outcome.
A change in control of either chamber could significantly affect the administration’s legislative agenda and congressional oversight.
Midterm elections often pose challenges for the party controlling the White House, as voters use the polls to assess the president’s performance.
For Trump and the Republicans, losing either chamber could complicate efforts to advance legislation and increase scrutiny of administration policies. A Democratic majority could also lead to congressional investigations into the president’s actions and those of his associates.
The results could influence the political strategies of potential candidates preparing for the 2028 presidential election, offering an early indication of voter priorities and the strength of competing political messages.
Trump’s approval rating stood at 32 per cent in a September Reuters/Ipsos poll, reflecting challenges for Republicans ahead of the elections.
Economic concerns, particularly rising consumer prices, are expected to play an important role in shaping voter preferences. Dissatisfaction with living costs could weaken Republican support, while Democrats appear to be demonstrating greater enthusiasm for voting, according to some early indicators.
There are also indications that some Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 may be reconsidering their political preferences amid economic frustrations and concerns about immigration enforcement policies.
Nevertheless, a decisive Democratic victory is not guaranteed. Republicans could benefit from their campaign spending advantage, continuing public scepticism towards Democrats and concerns among moderate voters about candidates from the party’s progressive wing.
Recent election history demonstrates how dramatically midterm results can alter the political landscape.
In 2010, during Barack Obama’s presidency, Republicans gained 63 seats in the House of Representatives amid economic difficulties and opposition to the administration’s healthcare reforms. Democrats lost control of the House but retained a Senate majority despite losing six seats.
Obama described the Republican victory as a political “shellacking” and subsequently faced pressure to reduce non-defence government spending.
In 2018, Democrats delivered a setback to Trump during his first presidential term, gaining a net 40 seats in the House. Republicans, however, strengthened their position in the Senate by securing a net gain of two seats.
The 2026 elections will also include gubernatorial contests in 36 states and legislative elections across nearly the entire country. Republicans currently hold approximately 55 per cent of state legislative seats, compared with 43.8 per cent held by Democrats, according to Ballotpedia.
If Democrats win control of the House, Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York could become the next speaker. As the current House Democratic leader, he would be positioned to direct the chamber’s legislative priorities and oversee committee investigations.
Jeffries has pledged to examine what he describes as corruption within the Trump administration. Democrats are also expected to prioritise reducing the cost of healthcare, groceries, housing, energy and other essential expenses.
If Republicans retain their majority, the speakership would likely remain with the party, with current Speaker Mike Johnson or another Republican potentially holding the position.
Republican legislative priorities are expected to include further tax reductions, increased defence spending and changes to social safety-net programmes, building on Trump’s 2025 domestic policy legislation.
Several closely contested House races could influence which party controls the chamber.
Among the notable contests is Republican Representative Mike Lawler’s re-election campaign in a New York district won by Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in 2024. Democrats are also targeting an open seat in a competitive Nebraska district, where rising fuel costs have become a concern for farmers and truckers.
Other important Democratic targets include two Republican-held seats in Pennsylvania and another in New Jersey.
Questions surrounding election administration and the possibility of political interference are also expected to remain prominent. US elections are administered by individual states, while election officials and congressional Democrats have been preparing for potential legal disputes over any federal intervention.
Trump has repeatedly alleged widespread election fraud since the 2020 presidential election, although those claims have not been substantiated by evidence sufficient to overturn the results.
The outcome of the November 2026 midterms will determine the balance of power in Congress, shape the legislative agenda and provide an important measure of public sentiment towards the Trump administration ahead of the 2028 presidential race.
