From the war in Ukraine to trade disputes and tensions over Greenland, US President Donald Trump’s return to power has created significant uncertainty across Europe.
Over the past 22 months, Trump has shifted Washington’s approach towards Kyiv, imposed tariffs on European allies and raised concerns across the continent with his statements about Greenland.
With the US midterm elections scheduled for November 3, voters could deal a setback to Trump’s Republican Party by giving Democrats control of one or both chambers of Congress. However, European officials remain uncertain whether such a shift would significantly limit the president’s influence on international affairs.
Several officials from the European Union (EU) and NATO told AFP that even a major Republican defeat might not reduce Trump’s unpredictable approach to foreign policy.
“We don’t think the unpredictability is going to change,” a senior EU diplomat said.
The European Union has avoided commenting publicly on the upcoming elections. European Commission spokeswoman Paula Pinho said the bloc would not comment on elections in the EU or elsewhere before the results were announced.
Privately, officials have also expressed limited expectations for a major shift in US policy. One EU diplomat said the election outcome was difficult to predict and questioned whether even a significant Democratic victory would substantially change Washington’s foreign policy direction.
Trump’s recent criticism of Ukraine and his outreach to Russia have raised further concerns among European governments as Washington continues efforts to end the conflict.
Although a Democratic victory could strengthen congressional support for Kyiv, European officials do not expect US assistance to return to previous levels. EU policymakers are instead concentrating on addressing an estimated €70 billion shortfall in Ukraine’s financing needs for the coming year.
European governments are encouraging partners, including the United Kingdom, Canada and Japan, to increase their assistance rather than relying on Washington.
There is also little expectation in Brussels that Trump will significantly reverse the tariffs imposed on European goods. Officials note that removing trade restrictions has historically been a lengthy process. During Joe Biden’s presidency, it took months to roll back some US tariffs on European steel following Trump’s first term, and certain restrictions remained in place.
A recent survey by the Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations found that only one-quarter of Americans supported eliminating all US tariffs on goods from the European Union.
European NATO members are also awaiting the findings of a Pentagon review of American military deployments across the continent, expected to be released in December.
Officials widely anticipate that the review could recommend reducing the US military presence in Europe, although European governments hope any cuts will remain limited.
NATO diplomats do not expect the midterm election results to substantially influence the review. While a Democratic-controlled Congress could produce stronger public support for the alliance, European countries are already increasing efforts to assume greater responsibility for their own defence.
“Whatever the outcome, we’ll keep going,” a European diplomat said, reflecting the bloc’s determination to continue strengthening its defence capabilities regardless of the US election results.
European officials are also concerned that the aftermath of the midterms could create additional uncertainty. A Republican victory might encourage Trump to pursue his agenda more aggressively, while an electoral defeat could prompt him to focus more heavily on international affairs to divert attention from domestic political challenges.
Bruce Stokes, a visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund, said US presidents facing domestic difficulties have historically sometimes turned their attention towards foreign policy.
Potential developments that could concern European governments include an escalation of the conflict involving Iran or a more forceful US approach towards Ukraine.
Stokes argued that Trump has consistently sought to remain at the centre of public attention, suggesting that his response to the midterm results could involve an increased focus on international affairs, whether through cooperation or confrontation.
For European capitals, the central question remains whether the elections will meaningfully constrain Trump’s foreign policy or leave the continent facing continued uncertainty over Washington’s strategic priorities.
